Risks to the UK food system have climbed significantly over the last year, with more than nine in 10 industry leaders and academics spotting a marked deterioration in stability. New research from IGD highlights a setting where volatility is becoming the norm rather than the exception for grocery businesses.
The organization’s first resilience survey found that 91% of respondents believed food system risk had risen during the previous 12 months. This broad agreement spans both the private sector and academic institutions, pointing to a universal recognition of the mounting pressures on supply chains.
Geopolitics was ranked as the most significant threat over the next five years. It sits just above climate change, water pressures, and the specific challenges currently facing agriculture. The ordering of these risks suggests immediate political instability is currently weighing heavier on minds than environmental shifts, though the latter is catching up fast.
Geopolitics and Economic Strain
IGD stated that grocery businesses are operating in an increasingly volatile environment shaped by international conflict, extreme weather, rising costs, and more fragile supply chains. The report highlights that these stressors are not merely temporary hurdles but are becoming permanent features of the operating setting.
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The survey ranked the economics of the food system as the fifth-biggest risk, followed closely by labour and skills shortages. Further down the list, respondents cited animal disease, cyber-security, biodiversity loss, and a lack of supply chain visibility as major concerns. These issues compound one another, making it difficult for businesses to isolate and solve individual problems.
The distinct mix of these hazards presents a hard challenge for planners. When labour shortages intersect with rising costs, the margin for error shrinks considerably for transport and logistics firms. This intersection of threats often exacerbates the impact of single-point failures in the network.
The unanimous verdict on government policy suggests a deepening disconnect between the speed of commercial disruption and the pace of legislative support. Historically, food systems have relied on government intervention during crises to stabilize markets, but this survey indicates that industry leaders feel they are currently handling these turbulent waters without a strong public sector shield. This lack of confidence mirrors trends seen in other regulated industries where private entities feel compelled to internalize risks that were previously managed through public frameworks.
Policy Shortfalls and Long-Term Risks
Every respondent to the survey said government policy had failed to strengthen the resilience of the UK food system over the past year. This 100% consensus is a stark indictment of current strategies, or lack thereof, coming from Westminster.
While geopolitics received the highest overall score for immediate concern, IGD warned that climate change is likely to pose the greatest long-term threat. The report argues that environmental shifts act as a threat multiplier, intensifying other risks including water scarcity, agricultural disruption, and biodiversity loss.
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The findings form part of IGD’s third annual resilience report, Thriving in a Volatile World. The document is designed to help food and grocery companies prioritize the threats most likely to affect supply, costs, and availability in the near future.
A Call for Proactive Measures
IGD senior resilience manager Kathryn Reynolds noted that the risks are intensifying. “Building resilience has become a shared priority across all sectors at a fast rate,” she said, according to the report.
Reynolds argued that the old methods of dealing with crises are insufficient. “For food businesses, reacting to disruption is no longer enough,” she stated. The focus must shift toward anticipation and structural strength.
“Organisations must anticipate change, invest in capability and build supply chains that can withstand shocks, adapt quickly and thrive in a rapidly changing world,” Reynolds added. The report serves as a roadmap for those necessary adjustments.
