Walmart Connect is taking a direct approach to win over advertisers, bypassing agencies to pitch brands directly. This move is part of its effort to dominate retail media networks, competing with Amazon and others.
One of the key concerns for advertisers is whether Walmart’s study can answer the question of whether its retail media network (RMN) campaign drove incremental sales or if the retailer took credit for a purchase that would have happened anyway.
Proving Incrementality
Lacie Edgeman, who leads PrograMetrix as co-owner and managing director, points out that inconsistent standards across platforms and challenges in demonstrating real sales impact have forced marketers to develop fragmented strategies for their retail media investments. Walmart’s latest initiative seeks to tackle these exact challenges head-on.
Edgeman said that in Q4, when CFOs and CMOs ask harder questions about return on investment, advertisers are least willing to fund spend they cannot defend. Walmart is signaling that it wants to be evaluated as a full-funnel partner, not just a lower-funnel conversion engine.
The lift studies offered by Walmart provide brands with specific insights into how their Walmart spend is performing, and Walmart gets to demonstrate its measurement capabilities. A Stella Rising spokesperson said that done well, these studies are a win for both sides.
Participation and Results
Participation in Walmart’s study hinges on how much advertisers allocate through Walmart Connect, Mile Marker’s chief analytics officer, Anthony Costanzo, explained. While at least four of Mile Marker’s clients are involved, Costanzo declined to disclose their identities or their specific spending levels.
Walmart’s move comes at a time when brands are locking in Q4 spending and finalizing 2027 media budgets. In August, Walmart reported its global ad business was up 38% for the second quarter of the year, making it one of the fastest-growing RMNs, per eMarketer.
If Walmart can conclusively attribute sales to its network, it could secure larger ad investments and reduce its reliance on Amazon. One industry executive suggested that proving measurable impact could give Walmart a key advantage in attracting more ad dollars.
This year, advertisers are projected to invest $69.33 billion in retail media, but rising expenditures are also increasing pressure to demonstrate clear returns. While incrementality tests provide valuable insights, they involve significant costs and delays, often taking weeks to complete.
Edgeman notes that results from these studies may not appear for up to nine weeks after a campaign ends. Since advertisers can’t independently design or run these tests, retailers like Walmart frequently assess their own performance metrics, Costanzo observed.
