British potato growers have warned supermarkets to expect smaller potatoes and tighter supplies this autumn. Potatoes struggle to grow in extreme heat, even with irrigation. Prolonged dry conditions this year have left fields unable to produce the sizes retailers typically demand, particularly for baking potatoes and chips.
Growers call for flexibility on size standards
Jim Wayman, a director at East Anglian potato-growing group 3Ms—which supplies Marks & Spencer and Aldi—said irrigation has not been enough to offset the heat’s impact. “We’ve been chucking water on them, but in this heat they’re not growing,” he explained.
Wayman urged supermarkets to relax size specifications for fresh produce. He noted that growers cannot guarantee the usual dimensions under current conditions. Industry leaders say shoppers may need to accept more variation in potato sizes later this year.
Scott Walker, chief executive of industry body GB Potatoes, confirmed production levels would not match recent years. Similar weather patterns across Europe could also limit the UK’s ability to import its way out of the shortage.
Prices climb as drought drains water reserves
Wholesale potato prices have already risen more than 40%. Tomatoes and iceberg lettuce have seen even sharper increases—60% and 90%, respectively. Supermarkets and hospitality businesses have increased imports from Spain and the Netherlands, but European growers face their own heat-related challenges.
The Environment Agency declared half of England officially in drought at the end of July. Rainfall in the week ending July 23 was just 3% of the long-term average. Reservoir levels sat at 75.3%, nearly 7.5 percentage points below normal. River flows were below average at 84% of monitoring sites.
Water restrictions have tightened, with 1,353 limits placed on agricultural abstraction. Potatoes require about 350mm of water per growing season—roughly 1.4 million liters per acre. This year’s drought has pushed irrigation systems to their limits.
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Climate change could worsen the situation. Research from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board projects irrigation needs may rise by 14% to 30% in the coming decades. Without more water storage, peak demand could exceed current infrastructure in nearly half of years.
Imports won’t fill the gap
The UK produced 5.5 million tonnes of potatoes in 2025, an 8.5% increase on the previous year. Domestic output now covers only 71% of the market’s needs, down from 90% at the turn of the century. The country imported nearly 2.5 million tonnes of fresh and processed potatoes on a raw-equivalent basis last year.
Europe’s struggles may limit that safety net this year. Growers in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Poland have also seen yields drop due to extreme heat. Forecasts for European production have been revised downward, raising concerns about availability for processing.
With domestic yields down, irrigation costs up, and European supplies constrained, supply chains will face greater pressure when the main British crop reaches markets in September and October.
GB Potatoes has called for faster approvals for new reservoirs. Storing winter and spring rainfall could help growers manage future droughts. For now, the focus remains on salvaging what can be harvested this year.
Consumer confidence in food supplies has been tested before major events. Efforts to stabilize expectations ahead of high-demand periods may become more common as climate challenges persist.
